The Current State of the IRGC and its Capability to Wage War

 

USS Abraham Lincoln, American Aircraft Carrier

Based on news reports and open sources, as of March 16, 2026, the United States' military operations, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, launched against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities, particularly in the missile, drone, and naval sectors.

Key Damage and Operational Impacts:

Command and Control: The US military forces have struck the IRGC headquarters, with reports claiming the destruction of Central Command centers and a decapitation strike on leadership, specifically the elimination of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Approximately 48 senior Iranian officials (i.e., political, military, and intelligence leaders) were killed in the opening strikes. Also, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reports that over 6,000 IRGC members have been killed and roughly 15,000 wounded since the start of Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion.

Key IRGC and Military Figures Killed:

• o General Mohammad Pakpour: Commander of the IRGC Ground Forces.
• o General Hossein Salami: Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC.
• o Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh: Chief of the IRGC Aerospace Force.
• o Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi: Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces.
• o Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh: Minister of Defense and former Air Force commander.
• o Admiral Ali Shamkhani: Former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and senior IRGC   strategist.
• o Major General Mohammad Bagheri: Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces

• Missile and Drone Capability: US Central Command (CENTCOM) and the White House reports state that Iranian ballistic missile capacity has been functionally destroyed, and drone manufacturing facilities have been hit hard.

• Missile Launcher Destruction: US and IDF forces focused heavily on transporter-erector- launchers (TELs) as they prepared to launch, reducing Iranian missile salvos by up to 90%. By March 11, roughly 60% or more of Iran’s ballistic missile launcher arsenal was destroyed or rendered inoperable.

• Infrastructure Destruction: Over 6,000 targets were hit across 30 provinces, including high-value, hardened underground missile silos and storage tunnels, such as the major site at Khorramabad.

• Drone Program Degradation: One-way attack drone capabilities were severely crippled, with official reports showing a 90% reduction in attacks in some assessments and an overall 95% reduction in functionality, partly due to the destruction of hangars and runways at key bases like Konarak.

• Naval and Infrastructure Assets: CENTCOM reports that over 100 Iranian vessels have been destroyed by US forces, including strikes on Kharg Island ( where 90% of Iran's oil export comes), which have destroyed Iranian naval mine storage facilities, missile storage bunkers, and 11 ships at the port.

• Noted IRGC Naval Ships Destroyed: IRIS Shahid Bagheri (Drone Carrier), IRIS Makran (Forward Base Ship), Soleimani-class Warships, IRIS Dena (Frigate), and vessels from the Jamaran, Sahand, Sabalan, Bayandor, and Alvand classes have been confirmed as struck or destroyed.

• The IRGC's Naval Headquarters: Several urban command structures have been dismantled. Extensive damage has been reported at key naval installations, including Bandar Abbas and Konarak, where satellite imagery shows destroyed buildings and sunken vessels after the US air strikes. At least 26 minelaying vessels have been destroyed (16 near the Strait of Hormuz and 10 at port), significantly weakening Iran's ability to blockade the waterway.

• Infrastructure Damage: Joint US-Israeli air strikes have caused substantial damage to Iranian military sites, with some reports from the Iranian Red Crescent claiming damage to tens of thousands of residential and commercial buildings.

The Operation Epic Fury has targeted over 3,000 locations to disable Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile arsenal, and naval power.

Key Data on Air Operations (As of March 16, 2026):

• Total Targets Struck: More than 6,000 targets identified by the Pentagon.
• Initial Wave: On February 28, nearly 900 strikes were launched within 12 hours.
• Duration: The campaign is in its 17th day of sustained air attacks. Assets: Operations involve 125+ aircraft, including 52+ refueling tankers, stealth fighters, and bombers.

The campaign has focused on degrading Iran's air defenses, command and control sites, missile production facilities, and naval vessels.

Nuclear Sites Damage

• Natanz: The Natanz nuclear production facility sustained severe damage, with satellite imagery showing the destruction of above-ground facilities, including the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant.
• Fordow: The Fordow fuel enrichment plant was rendered inoperable following targeted strikes on June 21, 2025, with further damage reported during the 2026 Epic Fury campaign.
• Isfahan & Research Sites: The Isfahan metallurgy facility suffered major damage, and additional strikes have targeted the Parchin explosive research facility and the Atomic Energy Agency headquarters in Tehran.

Given the magnitude of destruction against the Iranian political and military leaderships, as well as the suppression of the IRGC's capability to defend and launch a counter-offensive against the US and Israeli forces, would the war last for another two weeks or would the current Ayatollah (if he is still alive) agree to sit at the table and cede to the United States' demand to stop Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program? 

President Xi Jinping and The Generals of the Red Table

                         

General Zhang Youxia. Photo courtesy of BBC.

So, what’s going on in China, where unprecedented purging has happened this month of January?

A military purge due to a failed coup, a senior party leader's purge due to questionable loyalty to Xi Jinping, or a CMC purge due to global humiliation brought by substandard Chinese armaments? Or all of the above? Is corruption the CCP/PLA’s generic excuse to incarcerate or terminate generals who have fallen from Xi Jinping’s grace?

According to open sources, roughly 93% of generals who were active at the beginning of 2025 have since been relieved from their command posts or are no longer in public view, leading to the assumption that they are either incarcerated or executed. But no credible evidence to support these reports, though.

Recent news states that General Zhang Youxia, a close ally of Xi Jinping and top-ranking vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), was placed under arrest for "grave violations of discipline" in January 2026.

Reports also indicate that 29 of 44 senior military officers appointed to the Central Committee in 2022 went missing--suggesting a significant, widespread roundup of ranking party members and signaling a massive purge within the PLA.

A similar investigation was launched against General Liu Zhenli, the chief of staff of the commission's Joint Staff Department. While this constitutes a major purge aimed at ensuring loyalty to Xi Jinping, there is no credible, publicly available information confirming the arrest of about 3,000 soldiers and their families who are loyal to General Zhang Youxia. Have they launched a coup d’état but failed? 

The investigation into General Zhang Youxia, a member of the 24-person Politburo, indicates an escalation of President Xi Jinping's efforts to consolidate power over the armed forces. Clearly, there is a rupture in the Party structure, and Xi Jinping is focused on removing disloyal generals, even if it means promoting inexperienced officers to higher positions. A loyal and less corrupt leadership, but with questionable military capabilities? How would that stand on Xi Jinping’s planned Taiwan invasion in 2027?

President Xi Jinping’s extensive purging of senior PLA generals, including top rocket force commanders and his former top ally, General Zhang Youxia, drastically undermines the PLA's operational readiness in the near term. By decimating the high command and leaving key Central Military Commission positions vacant, these actions create a fragmented command structure,  likely making the invasion of Taiwan riskier or less likely in 2027, the year set by Xi Jinping. 

• Central Military Commission Gutted: As of January 2026, nearly the entire uniformed leadership of the CMC has been purged. Of the six uniformed commanders appointed to the body in 2022, five have been formally removed. Following the January 2026 investigations into General Zhang Youxia and General Liu Zhenli, CMC is now reduced to two members: Xi Jinping and the anti-corruption watchdog, General Zhang Shengmin.
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• Recent Wave (2023–2026): Over 50 high-ranking military and defense officials have been purged since an intensified campaign began in 2023.
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• October 2025 Mass Expulsion: In one of the largest single crackdowns in decades, the Communist Party expelled nine top generals on graft charges in October 2025. These included, among others:
• Gen. He Weidong: CMC Vice-Chairman and Politburo member.
• Adm. Miao Hua: Director of the CMC’s Political Work Department.
• Adm. Wang Houbin: Commander of the Rocket Force.
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• Defense Ministers: Two former defense ministers, Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, were purged and expelled from the Party in 2024 for corruption.
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• Rocket Force Target: The purge heavily targeted the Rocket Force, which oversees China's nuclear and conventional missiles, with at least six generals from this branch removed by late 2025.

The United States had the largest defense budget in the world in 2025, with projected spending of $997 billion, while China ranked second at $314 billion.  China is focused on modernization, and its budget is primarily allocated to developing and acquiring advanced military hardware, including stealth fighters, drones, and ballistic missiles. With this large amount of money reaching the hands of vulnerable generals, the abuse of public office for personal gain likely affected China’s defense manufacturing industry, leading state-owned and state-controlled corporations to produce defective and substandard military hardware and armaments.

Significant evidence indicates that systemic corruption within the Chinese People's Liberation Army has led to the manufacturing of substandard armaments and defective equipment. Corruption, particularly within the elite Rocket Force, led to incidents such as missiles filled with water rather than fuel, silos with malfunctioning doors, and even some exported defense products that malfunctioned severely during the war.

For example, the JF-17 Thunder Fighter, CH-4 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, F-7 Aircraft, F-22P Frigates, C-705 Missiles, FM90(N) Missile System, and VT-4 Main Battle Tank have experienced significant malfunctions, technical failures, and poor performance in both training exercises and in real-time conflicts. During the Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran’s Chinese-made radars YLC-8B and JY-27A and HQ-9B Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) have failed to engage the planes from the US Air Force, leaving the three Iranian nuclear sites defenseless to the Americans’ GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators.  And just recently, the Chinese-made radar systems JY-27A, JY-1/JYL-1, and Type 305A/H-200, as well as the anti-air missile FK-3, have failed to detect the US military forces penetrating Venezuela in the dead of the night, which led to the capture of Nicolas Maduro under the Operation Absolute Resolve.

Xi Jinping, as paranoid and proud as he is, will not allow himself to lose face on the global stage, and that is what happened after Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Absolute Resolve. In Chinese culture, "Losing face" (diū liǎn) refers to a severe loss of reputation, honor, and social standing caused by public embarrassment. Thus, Xi Jinping directed his anger at his senior leaders in the Central Military Commission, and the purging began, as I think it did. 

Is NATO Still Relevant With The United States?

 

European Union Members

(Source: By SiBr4 -  https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=30352945)

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was created in 1949 primarily to counter and curtail the foreseeable expansion and influence of the USSR (and then the Warsaw Pact Countries) in Europe after World War II.

The demise of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1989 and the breakup of the Warsaw Pact countries, considered as the “A” list nations in terms of threats to the US national security interests, has caused the United States’ foreign policy on defense to pivot slowly and strategically to the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, and with the current administration looking closely at China, North Korea, and Iran while still maintaining its radar on the USSR, now simply called as Russia.

As the saying goes in geopolitics, there are no permanent friends but only permanent interests. So, after the USSR’s disintegration, three former Soviet Republics, i.e., Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, 11 Warsaw Pact Countries, i.e., Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia, as well as Finland (a former Soviet territory), Sweden (historically neutral), and Germany have changed their allegiances as Soviet satellite countries and became part of NATO.  

The political and military realignment of the former Soviet satellite countries into the Western coalition is akin to a tectonic shift, transforming communist/socialist states into democratic nations and thereby lessening the threat posed by Russia to the United States.

Again, there are no permanent friends but only permanent interests. The United States fought against the Italian, German, and Japanese forces in World War II. Now these three countries are trading partners and military allies of the Americans. Russians who fought alongside the Americans in World War II to defeat the German forces became the United States’ archenemy. Still, its political clout and military capabilities (except for the nuclear warheads) around the world have diminished.

According to open sources, over the past 75 years, since NATO's creation, the United States has contributed an estimated $21.9 trillion to the alliance’s defense budget, significantly more than the 32 members. An estimated $36 billion was spent on direct protection of Europe, including troop presence and infrastructure, in 2018. What about the aid to Ukraine? As of 2025, the US government had appropriated approximately $187 billion to Ukraine to fund its fight against Russia, thereby lessening the logistical burden on the European Union members and NATO forces.

Right after World War II, the United States, through the Marshall Plan or the European Recovery Program, started an initiative to help 16 European countries get back on their feet and provided around $13.3 billion ( (equivalent to over $130 billion today) to “rebuild economies, prevent communist takeovers, and create strong markets for U.S. goods, offering funds for food, fuel, machinery, and technical assistance.” The Marshall Plan was a total success, given how Europe has become an economic powerhouse today.

The United States has done so much for the European Union and NATO, and with the deafening calls from the Europeans for the American Forces to leave their continent because of the Greenland issue, the Trump Administration must take the ingrates and anti-American peoples’ proposition seriously and let them protect their continent this time against Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

While the United States is funding trillions of dollars on the defense and security of Europe, it’s allowing the European Union members to concentrate and allocate their spending in building powerhouse economies like those in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The parasitism relationship between the United States and the European Union must stop. The Europeans can now handle the Russians in Ukraine without the United States' military aid and protection. Can they do it, really?

For the last time, there are no permanent friends but only permanent interests. Now, the Europeans consider the Americans as their enemies, while the United States’ national security interests have now shifted to the Western Hemisphere,  the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific Region. The primary threat is no longer Russia but China. American allies such as Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines welcome the presence of US military forces in the region, forming alliances similar to NATO. There is no better time to move the US troops and military infrastructures from Europe to the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and, of course, Greenland.   

By the way, Europeans are saying that there were about 1000 soldiers from the European Union who died in the United States' GWOT in Iraq and Afghanistan, so the Trump Administration must shut up and give up its interest in Greenland. Let me say this, though: around 250,000 American soldiers died in the European theater during World War II, trying to protect and liberate the continent from the war machines of Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini.