OPERATION EPIC FURY: IS IT JUST AND LEGITIMATE WAR?

Operation Epic Fury Press Briefing, March 19, 2026

Photo by Benjamin D Applebaum

Background

Never Again.

Since 1979, with the invasion of the US embassy in Tehran and the initial hostage taking of 66 Americans, and down to the 52 staff held captive for 444 days, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) has been waging an asymmetric warfare against the United States, with the latter launching Operation Epic Fury in February 2026 after 47 years of passivity of the US Government (USG).

To the vociferous anti-Trumper crowd in the Western World, the United States’ military campaigns in Iran violate international law. The war is met with total indignation on social media, mainstream media, and even in the halls of the US Congress. From the first salvo of air attacks on February 28 to this day, the relentless accusation against President Trump of ushering the country into another forever war is also echoed overseas. Leaders of the European Union and NATO, especially Spain, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, have castigated President Trump for not informing them of his plan to invade Iran, then distanced themselves later on from the United States’ military campaigns, stating that the Iran War is not their war.

The Democrat Party’s calls to end the war and its condemnation of sending the Americans’ sons and daughters to harm’s way grew louder even more when the former Director of NCTC, Joe Kent, resigned from his position, claiming that in his good conscience he could not support Operation Epic Fury because there is no imminent threat from Iran.

If the USG considered the IRI as a State-Sponsored Terrorist Regime--referring to a foreign government providing supplies, training, and other forms of support to non-state terrorist organizations--the Iranian government should then be treated with a higher degree of concern. More so, the IRGC and its proxies, like Hezbollah, are considered to be Religious Terrorists—groups that use violence to further what they see as a divinely commanded purpose and who value death more than life itself.

Following the expiration of a 10-day deadline for the Islamic Republic of Iran to comply with nuclear and security demands of the USG, President Trump ordered the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, in coordination with the Israel IDF’s Operation Roaring Lion.

The operation is a large-scale, coordinated US military and cyber campaign aimed at the systematic degradation of the IRGC’s offensive capabilities. The USG has articulated four primary military objectives for the campaign:

• Permanent Denuclearization: To ensure the IRGC never obtains a nuclear weapon by neutralizing remaining and reconstituted nuclear infrastructure.
• Destruction of Missile Infrastructure: To raze the IRGC missile industry to the ground by destroying missile stockpiles, launchers, and production factories.
• Neutralization of Naval Forces: To annihilate the IRGC Navy and other security infrastructure used to project power and threaten regional stability, especially in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Degradation of Proxy Networks: To significantly weaken IRGC’s regional "terrorist proxies," including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, preventing them from further destabilizing the Middle East.

I disagree with Joe Kent. Based on my assessment of the pugnacious relationship and antipathy of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United States, the Shiite regime, which calls the United States the Great Satan, poses imminent danger, not an immediate threat, to the Americans. I arrived at this conclusion using the analytical process called CHIPS (© 2016)—Capability, History, Intention, Pronouncement, and Situation. CHIPS is a strategic analytical method that I used to assess the Islamic Republic of Iran’s overall composition and the threat it poses to US national security.

This study uses Open Sources, which are derived from periodicals, research studies, and news publications; as such, this presentation can be identified as an Open Source Intelligence (OSINT).

Capability

How strong are the IRI security forces? The IRI security infrastructure is divided into three forces: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regular Islamic Republic of Iran Army (ARTESH), and the volunteer militia known as BASIJ. For this study, this paper will cover only the IRGC and its Quds Force, as they have the capacity to affect and threaten the US government’s national security both domestically and abroad.

IRGC is Iran's elite military, intelligence, and economic powerhouse, with an estimated 125,000-210,000 personnel, focusing on the Ayatollah Regime’s survival, asymmetric warfare, and regional influence. It also controls Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, drone programs, and the Quds Force (QF), which manages proxy networks across the Middle East and East Asia, like Hamas (Gaza), Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hashd al-Sha'abi (Iraq), National Defence Forces (Syria), Houthis (Yemen), Zainabiyoun Brigade (Pakistan), and the Fatemiyoun Division (Afghanistan), to name a few.

Before Operation Epic Fury, the IRGC possessed the Middle East's largest missile arsenal, boasting roughly 2,500 missiles, including advanced long-range ballistic and cruise missiles (e.g., Sejil, Khorramshahr-4) and over 2,000 drones. The arsenal was designed for saturation attacks on regional targets and to maintain a second-strike capability. This study focuses on the IRGC’s Force Projection Capability beyond Iran.

Missile Capabilities

• IRGC Aerospace Force:  Operates Iran's largest-in-region missile inventory and UAV capabilities, featuring underground missile silos, enabling strikes across the Middle East.
• Ballistic Missiles: The arsenal included weapons with ranges of up to 2,000 km, capable of striking targets throughout the region. Key missile models included the Sejil (1,550-mile range), Kheibar (1,240-mile range), Ghadr, and Khorramshahr.
• Cruise Missiles: Advanced long-range anti-ship missiles were deployed to create a defensive barrier and threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Missile Cities: The IRGC maintained extensive underground storage facilities for these missiles, ensuring survivability against initial strikes.
• Precision: Recent exercises highlighted improved precision in striking targets, as evidenced by attacks on Israel and Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

Drone and Naval Capabilities

• UAVs (Drones): The IRGC relied heavily on one-way attack drones (similar to the Shahed series) for offensive operations.
• Navy Assets: The IRGC Navy operated hundreds of fast-attack boats and naval drones intended to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Regional Proliferation: The IRGC was noted for providing advanced drones and missiles to regional allies like Lebanese Hezbollah.

Strategic Posture

• Second-Strike Doctrine: The arsenal was configured so that even if a first strike destroyed 50% of the IRGC weapons, over 1,000 missiles would remain to retaliate and overwhelm regional defenses.
• Production Capability: Iran's rate of producing new missiles and drones was outpacing the ability of regional defenses to create interceptors.
• Missile Response: In the initial days of the conflict, the IRGC demonstrated its capability by launching over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones.

Quds Force is also active in the Western Hemisphere, focusing on intelligence gathering, clandestine operations, and developing logistical networks. The QF operators are concentrating on Venezuela, the Tri-Border Area (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay), and on establishing anti-US influence in the region. IRGC-QF also has a presence in Mexico and Canada, as reported by the news media. There is no doubt that the existence of IRGC-QF operators at the United States’ doorsteps elevates the terrorists’ threats to homeland security.

History

The IRI Government, through the IRGC, has engaged in a long-term, asymmetric campaign against the United States since the 1980s, primarily using proxy militias, intelligence operations, and naval harassment to avoid direct conventional war. Key actions include training insurgents in Iraq, attacks in Lebanon, and provocations in the Persian Gulf, aiming to force US military forces' withdrawal from the Middle East.

Key Historical Conflict Points

• 1979 US Embassy Invasion and Hostage Taking: The crisis lasted from November 4, 1979, to January 20, 1981, during the time of President Jimmy Carter (D). Iranian militants seized the US embassy in Tehran, initially taking 66 Americans hostage, and while several hostages were released early, 52 Americans were held captive for 444 days.
• 1983 Car Bombing in Beirut: Islamic Jihad, an Iran-backed terrorist group, staged a suicide car bombing at the US Embassy in Beirut, killing 17 Americans.
• 1983 US Barracks Bombing: The IRGC was instrumental in forming, training, and funding Hezbollah, which carried out the 1983 US Marine barracks bombing in Beirut, killing 241 US personnel.
• 1984 Kidnapping of William Buckley: Hezbollah, supported by the IRGC, kidnapped William Buckley, the CIA station chief in Beirut, Lebanon. He was held for approximately 15 months and subjected to brutal torture intended to force him to reveal CIA intelligence networks. Some intelligence reports also suggest he was moved to Tehran, Iran, where he was tortured in the basement of the Iranian foreign ministry. The interrogation has resulted in the decimation of the CIA network in Lebanon and had a big effect on the intelligence collection in the Middle East Operation. Ali Larijani was the IRGC Commander in the 1980s and supervised Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• 1987-1988 Tanker War: The IRGC Navy mined the Persian Gulf, resulting in Operation Praying Mantis, where the US Navy forces destroyed Iranian oil platforms and naval ships.
• 2003–2011 Iraq War: The Quds Force supplied Shiite militants with advanced roadside bombs, leading to the deaths of over 600 US service members.
• 2016 Capture of US Navy Sailors: The 2016 US–Iran naval incident happened on January 12, 2016, during the Obama administration. IRGC forces captured ten US Navy sailors after two riverine command boats drifted into Iranian territorial waters near Farsi Island in the Persian Gulf.
• 2020 Assassination of Qasem Soleimani: The US killed Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, a major escalation in the conflict. Soleimani is reported to be the mastermind of the roadside bombings in Iraq.
• Ongoing Regional Shadow War: The IRGC continues to support proxy forces in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen that target US military bases with drones and missiles.

The IRGC's strategy focuses on "guerrilla warfare" and "low-intensity conflict," aiming to inflict costs that make the US presence unsustainable in the Middle East, rather than winning through conventional battle. But this kind of war escalated in 2026 when the American forces launched Operation Epic Fury.

Intention

The IRGC intends to expel US military forces from the Middle East, retaliate for the killing of Qassem Soleimani, and counter US influence in the region through asymmetric warfare. Their strategy involves targeting US personnel and interests, supporting proxy militias, and employing cyber warfare against US infrastructures.

Key aspects of the IRGC's intent and actions include:

• Asymmetric Warfare: The IRGC-QF utilizes regional proxy militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to attack US coalition forces and allies. Rough estimates indicate that the IRGC and its proxy network have been responsible for the killings of more than 1,000 Americans since 1979. This total includes US military personnel, diplomats, and civilians killed in various attacks across the Middle East and elsewhere over the past four decades.
• Retaliation and Terror Plotting: Following the 2020 killing of Qassem Soleimani, the IRGC has vowed revenge, plotting attacks on American personnel, civilians, and former officials in the Middle East and around the world.
• Targeting US Assets: The IRGC frequently engages in harassment of US naval vessels, including high-speed boat approaches and drones.
• Cyber Attacks: The IRGC operates a robust cyber program capable of, and has engaged in, attacks on US infrastructure and intelligence-gathering. IRGC hackers had successfully infiltrated Donald Trump’s 2024 Presidential Campaign email system, launched major DDoS campaigns against US financial institutions, and even destroyed Las Vegas Sands Casino’s servers in retaliation for the political comments made by the owner. Recent cyberattacks by the IRGC and affiliated groups against the United States have escalated sharply since late February 2026. The IRGC often operates through front groups or private contractors to maintain plausible deniability, and these are:

§  § Handala: Focused on data destruction rather than extortion; recent attacks claim retaliation for kinetic strikes.

§  § Seedworm (MuddyWater): Active in cyber espionage and long-term network infiltration of USG and private-sector targets.

§  § Pioneer Kitten: Known for targeting the healthcare, satellite, and defense sectors.

§  § APT42: Specializes in "rapport-building" spear-phishing, often impersonating journalists or think-tank employees to harvest credentials from USG officials.

• Exporting Revolution: A core, enduring mandate of the IRGC is to defend the Ayatollah’s regime and project power against the US and its allies overseas. IRGC and its proxy, Hezbollah, have established a strategic foothold in Venezuela with the intention of creating a long-term hub to advance Iranian interests in the Western Hemisphere and establish a presence near the United States. The US DEA long accused the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah of using Venezuela as a base for drug trafficking and money laundering schemes in collusion with Venezuelan officials and local cartels. The proceeds from these illicit activities help fund Hezbollah's operations in the Middle East. 

The US officially designated the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in April 2019 due to its involvement in these activities.

Pronouncement

Based on reports leading up to the Operation Epic Fury, the IRGC and Iranian leadership issued several stark warnings and declarations against the United States, positioning themselves as prepared for a "full-scale hybrid war."

Key pronouncements and actions by the IRGC and Iranian officials before the 2026 war included:

•  The Morbid Chant: Since 1979, the IRI government has been chanting DEATH TO AMERICA. The chant "Marg bar Amrika" is a widely used political slogan in Iran, often chanted during parliamentary sessions.
• "Finger on the Trigger" Warning: IRGC commanders warned that their forces were "more ready than ever, finger on the trigger," as US warships headed toward the Middle East.
• Retaliation Threats: The IRGC stated that any US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities would trigger a response that would "cause deep regret.”
• Escalation Signaling: An IRGC commander warned that the IRGC's deterrence posture meant that a strike on its infrastructure would prompt a faster, broader response than in past engagements, focusing on "horizontal escalation" against US forces across the Middle East.
• Dismissal of US Objectives: As tensions peaked, the IRGC dismissed claims that U.S.-led military campaigns were achieving their goals, asserting that Iran would "determine the end of the war."
• "Great Satan" and Regional Threat: The longstanding designation of the US as the "Great Satan" was reaffirmed, with then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning that any US attack would spark a regional war.
• Accusation of "Full-Scale Hybrid War": The IRGC stated they were actively engaged in a "full-scale hybrid war" and would not be intimidated by US pressure.

Before the 2026 war, Iran had also officially designated US military forces in the region as terrorist organizations (following a similar designation of the IRGC by the US in 2019) and accused the US of creating, rather than reducing, regional instability.

Situation

The situation that led to Operation Epic Fury on February 28 was a combination of stalled diplomatic negotiations, Iran's continued nuclear and missile ambitions, and immediate maritime escalation.

Military Situation

• US Military Buildup: Under Operation Epic Fury, the US conducted its largest military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War. This included the deployment of three aircraft carriers, a dozen supporting ships, fighter jets, bombers, and air defense batteries.
• Intelligence Assessments: The US and Israel concluded that Iran was within weeks of possessing a nuclear weapon. This assessment served as the primary justification for the subsequent Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion (Israel).
• Regional Escalation: Before the war, Israel had conducted near-daily airstrikes against Iranian-backed Hezbollah targets in Lebanon for nearly a year. Tensions had also been fueled by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks that killed more than a thousand Israelis and subsequent regional fighting.
• Asymmetric Posture: Iran maintained an asymmetric strategy, relying on drones, fast-attack boats, and a network of regional proxies (the "Axis of Resistance") to counter conventional US and Israeli power.
• Western Hemisphere, Mexico, and Canada Presence: The IRGC utilizes a "direct air bridge" to Venezuela to transport personnel, weapons, and senior intelligence members into South America. Precise numbers of IRGC-QF members are not publicly disclosed. Still, they are estimated to number between 5,000 and 15,000 personnel globally, with a covert presence focused on intelligence gathering, networking with criminal organizations, and logistical support. Reports in early 2026 indicate that the Quds Force has attempted to recruit cartel-linked individuals to attack US officials and Iranian dissidents in the US mainland and Mexico. IRGC-QF operatives targeted the Israeli ambassador to Mexico in late 2024, showing an active intelligence and operational capability within the country. Based on reports in 2024 and early 2026, an estimated 700 individuals linked to the IRGC are operating or residing in Canada.
• Missile Force Projection: In March 2026, the IRGC attempted to strike the US-UK base at Diego Garcia, 4,000 km (roughly 2,500 miles) away, using two-stage, long-range ballistic missiles (possibly modified Khorramshahr-class). While the attempt failed—with missiles either failing or being intercepted—it demonstrated a major expansion in force projection beyond their declared 2,000 km limit.

Political Situation

• Diplomatic Failure: Last-minute "last-chance" negotiations in Geneva between the Trump administration and Iranian officials failed to produce a new deal to replace the JCPOA, which Trump had dismantled in 2018. Three rounds of high-stakes negotiations in February 2026—in Muscat, Oman, and in Geneva, Switzerland—ended in a stalemate. Iran refused to accept a "zero-enrichment" policy or to include its ballistic missile program in a new deal.
• Trump's 10-Day Ultimatum: President Donald Trump issued a 10-day ultimatum for Iran to comply with US demands regarding its nuclear program. The operation was launched following Tehran's refusal to meet these conditions.
• Iranian Internal Pressure: The IRI government was facing severe economic pressure from sanctions and widespread domestic unrest before the war began, and the United States saw it as a window of opportunity to launch the military campaigns along with Israel.

Nuclear Situation

• Uranium Stockpile: Based on reports from March 2026, the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged that the IRGC possesses a stockpile of around 441 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, which international experts and reports note is enough to produce material for 10–11 nuclear weapons. The stated amount is approximately 441 kg of 60%-enriched uranium, which is a short technical step away from 90% weapons-grade levels.
• Quantity for 10 Bombs: IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi stated in October 2025 that Iran's stockpile of approximately 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium was enough for ten nuclear bombs if enriched further.

Conclusion

Based on June 2025 intelligence assessments following Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 attacks on Iran’s three nuclear sites—Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, US and Israeli officials claimed massive damage to Iranian nuclear facilities. Still, other assessments and IAEA input suggested that significant capabilities survived, and while infrastructures were damaged, not all of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile was eliminated.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed to CBS NEWS that around 440 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium is under the rubble, and Iran has no plans to retrieve the near‑weapons‑grade material. This is the same Araghchi who, on February 26, claimed that Iran deliberately limits its ballistic missile range to 2,000 km. However, this claim contradicts reports from March 2026, which suggest Iran demonstrated a 4,000 km range by targeting the British base on Diego Garcia, bringing European targets like London, Madrid, and Munich within reach.

On February 26, the US Intelligence Community assessed that IRI was only weeks away from enriching enough uranium to produce a low-level nuclear device. Likewise, Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, as reported by the Associated Press said, “The significantly increased production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon State to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern” and that “approximately 42 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium is theoretically enough to produce one atomic bomb, if enriched further to 90%.” One device could be used by IRGC-QF and/or Hezbollah operators in North America or the Western Hemisphere (See Situation-Western Hemisphere, Mexico, and Canada Presence).

Finding that the IRI negotiators, led by Abbas Araghchi, were not amenable to the USG's demands, the final round of nuclear negotiations involving Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff concluded on February 26, 2026, in Geneva, where they reportedly described the Iranian proposal presented on the final day as being "full of holes." Araghchi’s team walked out of the negotiation table. This validated the old report by Al Jazeera on June 4, 2025, when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei firmly stated that Iran will not abandon its uranium enrichment, rejecting US demands for a complete halt. Khamenei described calls to stop enrichment as "nonsense" and asserted it is crucial for Iran's energy independence and technological progress.

Two days after the nuclear negotiation ended, the US Intelligence Community and Israel's Mossad received information that the senior leadership of the then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would meet in one building in Tehran at the same time, which led to President Trump approving the launch of Operation Epic Fury, as both USG and Israel saw the “window of opportunity” in front of them, which might not happen again.

Considering the IRGC’s capability to enrich uranium into weapons grade in weeks, ability to produce ballistic missiles at a range of 2000 kilometers (now revealed to be 4000 Kilometers), its history of asymmetric warfare with the United States since 1980s that killed thousands of Americans, its intention of targeting US national security interests here and abroad with proxies or otherwise, its pronouncements of killing the American infidels and Death to America, and the intelligence assessment that IRGC can choke the world economy via Strait of Hormuz, it is unlikely for Joe Kent to say that Iran does not pose imminent threat to the United States (or even to the Middle East and the rest of the world).

When it comes to nuclear issues and threats, especially from a country labeled as a State-Sponsored Terrorist Regime, the USG generally considers “all bets on the table” to mean, in national security terms, that all military options, peace negotiations, diplomatic proposals, or political risks are under consideration, or in play. It indicates a situation in which everything is exposed, and no option is off-limits. This reminded me of my Hostage Rescue Operations class when a student raised this scenario: A terrorist group has kidnapped the President of the United States, and if their demands are not met, they would kill the President and detonate a portable nuclear bomb on the mainland. What would be the USG’s response? Our CIA instructor replied in one sentence: Find the portable nuclear bomb at all costs and let the President die, if he cannot be rescued alive. You got my point. Nuclear threat is a paramount concern to the US Government.

The United States is dealing with a regime that has a nihilistic mindset, akin to a religious terrorist that uses violence to further what they see as a divinely commanded purpose. The suicidal behaviors of the religious terrorists deepen the degree of concern about their existence because of their religious adherence to jihad (holy war). Their willingness to die for their cause makes them dangerous, as exemplified by the suicidal operations of the al-Qaeda members on 9/11.

If an Islamist regime could kill 35,000 plus of its people in January 2026 for protesting, execute more than 2000 Iranians in 2025 for religious violations, and send 36,000 schoolchildren to their deaths as "human-wave" attacks, including clearing minefields, as part of IRGC tactics during the Iran-Iraq War, would the IRGC-QF hesitate to kill hundreds of thousands "American infidels" using a nuclear bomb? Or strike the “Zionist Regime” or hit the blasphemous Madrid, Paris, London? The presence of hundreds of IRGC-QF operators at the United States' doorsteps should raise a great alarm for the USG. Remember, it only took 19 al-Qaeda members to bring the United States to its knees and change the way Americans live their lives after 9/11. This must never happen again. Ever.

Going back to Joe Kent’s assertion that the Islamic Republic of Iran posed no imminent threat to the United States, I would say that his assessment was more of a personal protest than an official pronouncement, as he was compartmentalized from intelligence briefings weeks leading up to Operation Epic Fury due to leaking intelligence reports, and that created stigma.

But, granting that Joe Kent did not know the imminent threat, as he was the man on the outside looking in, I would present that before 9/11, the US Intelligence Community had no intelligence about the 19 Saudi Arabian nationals planning to crash four airplanes into the Twin Towers, the Pentagon building, and possibly the White House, where the plane landed in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. No intelligence on hitting the country. Nada.

On that fateful morning on September 11, the world stood still, and the Americans said: Never Again. Since then, the USG, in terms of national security matters, appears to follow the Bush Doctrine, which asserted the United States’ right to launch preemptive or preventive war to dismantle terrorist threats abroad before they could reach the US mainland. It establishes the right of the United States to use military force against perceived threats before they materialize into real attacks. Bring it to them before they can bring it home. It shifted foreign policy toward unilateral action and regime change, seeking to destroy threats where they lived, before the enemies could bring their evil plans to decimate hundreds of thousands of Americans in the homeland using a nuclear device or otherwise; thus, the Operation Epic Fury.

Never Again.

 

The Current State of the IRGC and its Capability to Wage War

 

USS Abraham Lincoln, American Aircraft Carrier

Based on news reports and open sources, as of March 16, 2026, the United States' military operations, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, launched against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities, particularly in the missile, drone, and naval sectors.

Key Damage and Operational Impacts:

Command and Control: The US military forces have struck the IRGC headquarters, with reports claiming the destruction of Central Command centers and a decapitation strike on leadership, specifically the elimination of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Approximately 48 senior Iranian officials (i.e., political, military, and intelligence leaders) were killed in the opening strikes. Also, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reports that over 6,000 IRGC members have been killed and roughly 15,000 wounded since the start of Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion.

Key IRGC and Military Figures Killed:

• o General Mohammad Pakpour: Commander of the IRGC Ground Forces.
• o General Hossein Salami: Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC.
• o Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh: Chief of the IRGC Aerospace Force.
• o Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi: Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces.
• o Brigadier General Aziz Nasirzadeh: Minister of Defense and former Air Force commander.
• o Admiral Ali Shamkhani: Former Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and senior IRGC   strategist.
• o Major General Mohammad Bagheri: Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces

• Missile and Drone Capability: US Central Command (CENTCOM) and the White House reports state that Iranian ballistic missile capacity has been functionally destroyed, and drone manufacturing facilities have been hit hard.

• Missile Launcher Destruction: US and IDF forces focused heavily on transporter-erector- launchers (TELs) as they prepared to launch, reducing Iranian missile salvos by up to 90%. By March 11, roughly 60% or more of Iran’s ballistic missile launcher arsenal was destroyed or rendered inoperable.

• Infrastructure Destruction: Over 6,000 targets were hit across 30 provinces, including high-value, hardened underground missile silos and storage tunnels, such as the major site at Khorramabad.

• Drone Program Degradation: One-way attack drone capabilities were severely crippled, with official reports showing a 90% reduction in attacks in some assessments and an overall 95% reduction in functionality, partly due to the destruction of hangars and runways at key bases like Konarak.

• Naval and Infrastructure Assets: CENTCOM reports that over 100 Iranian vessels have been destroyed by US forces, including strikes on Kharg Island ( where 90% of Iran's oil export comes), which have destroyed Iranian naval mine storage facilities, missile storage bunkers, and 11 ships at the port.

• Noted IRGC Naval Ships Destroyed: IRIS Shahid Bagheri (Drone Carrier), IRIS Makran (Forward Base Ship), Soleimani-class Warships, IRIS Dena (Frigate), and vessels from the Jamaran, Sahand, Sabalan, Bayandor, and Alvand classes have been confirmed as struck or destroyed.

• The IRGC's Naval Headquarters: Several urban command structures have been dismantled. Extensive damage has been reported at key naval installations, including Bandar Abbas and Konarak, where satellite imagery shows destroyed buildings and sunken vessels after the US air strikes. At least 26 minelaying vessels have been destroyed (16 near the Strait of Hormuz and 10 at port), significantly weakening Iran's ability to blockade the waterway.

• Infrastructure Damage: Joint US-Israeli air strikes have caused substantial damage to Iranian military sites, with some reports from the Iranian Red Crescent claiming damage to tens of thousands of residential and commercial buildings.

The Operation Epic Fury has targeted over 3,000 locations to disable Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile arsenal, and naval power.

Key Data on Air Operations (As of March 16, 2026):

• Total Targets Struck: More than 6,000 targets identified by the Pentagon.
• Initial Wave: On February 28, nearly 900 strikes were launched within 12 hours.
• Duration: The campaign is in its 17th day of sustained air attacks. Assets: Operations involve 125+ aircraft, including 52+ refueling tankers, stealth fighters, and bombers.

The campaign has focused on degrading Iran's air defenses, command and control sites, missile production facilities, and naval vessels.

Nuclear Sites Damage

• Natanz: The Natanz nuclear production facility sustained severe damage, with satellite imagery showing the destruction of above-ground facilities, including the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant.
• Fordow: The Fordow fuel enrichment plant was rendered inoperable following targeted strikes on June 21, 2025, with further damage reported during the 2026 Epic Fury campaign.
• Isfahan & Research Sites: The Isfahan metallurgy facility suffered major damage, and additional strikes have targeted the Parchin explosive research facility and the Atomic Energy Agency headquarters in Tehran.

Given the magnitude of destruction against the Iranian political and military leaderships, as well as the suppression of the IRGC's capability to defend and launch a counter-offensive against the US and Israeli forces, would the war last for another two weeks or would the current Ayatollah (if he is still alive) agree to sit at the table and cede to the United States' demand to stop Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program? 

President Xi Jinping and The Generals of the Red Table

                         

General Zhang Youxia. Photo courtesy of BBC.

So, what’s going on in China, where unprecedented purging has happened this month of January?

A military purge due to a failed coup, a senior party leader's purge due to questionable loyalty to Xi Jinping, or a CMC purge due to global humiliation brought by substandard Chinese armaments? Or all of the above? Is corruption the CCP/PLA’s generic excuse to incarcerate or terminate generals who have fallen from Xi Jinping’s grace?

According to open sources, roughly 93% of generals who were active at the beginning of 2025 have since been relieved from their command posts or are no longer in public view, leading to the assumption that they are either incarcerated or executed. But no credible evidence to support these reports, though.

Recent news states that General Zhang Youxia, a close ally of Xi Jinping and top-ranking vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), was placed under arrest for "grave violations of discipline" in January 2026.

Reports also indicate that 29 of 44 senior military officers appointed to the Central Committee in 2022 went missing--suggesting a significant, widespread roundup of ranking party members and signaling a massive purge within the PLA.

A similar investigation was launched against General Liu Zhenli, the chief of staff of the commission's Joint Staff Department. While this constitutes a major purge aimed at ensuring loyalty to Xi Jinping, there is no credible, publicly available information confirming the arrest of about 3,000 soldiers and their families who are loyal to General Zhang Youxia. Have they launched a coup d’état but failed? 

The investigation into General Zhang Youxia, a member of the 24-person Politburo, indicates an escalation of President Xi Jinping's efforts to consolidate power over the armed forces. Clearly, there is a rupture in the Party structure, and Xi Jinping is focused on removing disloyal generals, even if it means promoting inexperienced officers to higher positions. A loyal and less corrupt leadership, but with questionable military capabilities? How would that stand on Xi Jinping’s planned Taiwan invasion in 2027?

President Xi Jinping’s extensive purging of senior PLA generals, including top rocket force commanders and his former top ally, General Zhang Youxia, drastically undermines the PLA's operational readiness in the near term. By decimating the high command and leaving key Central Military Commission positions vacant, these actions create a fragmented command structure,  likely making the invasion of Taiwan riskier or less likely in 2027, the year set by Xi Jinping. 

• Central Military Commission Gutted: As of January 2026, nearly the entire uniformed leadership of the CMC has been purged. Of the six uniformed commanders appointed to the body in 2022, five have been formally removed. Following the January 2026 investigations into General Zhang Youxia and General Liu Zhenli, CMC is now reduced to two members: Xi Jinping and the anti-corruption watchdog, General Zhang Shengmin.
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• Recent Wave (2023–2026): Over 50 high-ranking military and defense officials have been purged since an intensified campaign began in 2023.
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• October 2025 Mass Expulsion: In one of the largest single crackdowns in decades, the Communist Party expelled nine top generals on graft charges in October 2025. These included, among others:
• Gen. He Weidong: CMC Vice-Chairman and Politburo member.
• Adm. Miao Hua: Director of the CMC’s Political Work Department.
• Adm. Wang Houbin: Commander of the Rocket Force.
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• Defense Ministers: Two former defense ministers, Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, were purged and expelled from the Party in 2024 for corruption.
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• Rocket Force Target: The purge heavily targeted the Rocket Force, which oversees China's nuclear and conventional missiles, with at least six generals from this branch removed by late 2025.

The United States had the largest defense budget in the world in 2025, with projected spending of $997 billion, while China ranked second at $314 billion.  China is focused on modernization, and its budget is primarily allocated to developing and acquiring advanced military hardware, including stealth fighters, drones, and ballistic missiles. With this large amount of money reaching the hands of vulnerable generals, the abuse of public office for personal gain likely affected China’s defense manufacturing industry, leading state-owned and state-controlled corporations to produce defective and substandard military hardware and armaments.

Significant evidence indicates that systemic corruption within the Chinese People's Liberation Army has led to the manufacturing of substandard armaments and defective equipment. Corruption, particularly within the elite Rocket Force, led to incidents such as missiles filled with water rather than fuel, silos with malfunctioning doors, and even some exported defense products that malfunctioned severely during the war.

For example, the JF-17 Thunder Fighter, CH-4 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, F-7 Aircraft, F-22P Frigates, C-705 Missiles, FM90(N) Missile System, and VT-4 Main Battle Tank have experienced significant malfunctions, technical failures, and poor performance in both training exercises and in real-time conflicts. During the Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran’s Chinese-made radars YLC-8B and JY-27A and HQ-9B Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) have failed to engage the planes from the US Air Force, leaving the three Iranian nuclear sites defenseless to the Americans’ GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators.  And just recently, the Chinese-made radar systems JY-27A, JY-1/JYL-1, and Type 305A/H-200, as well as the anti-air missile FK-3, have failed to detect the US military forces penetrating Venezuela in the dead of the night, which led to the capture of Nicolas Maduro under the Operation Absolute Resolve.

Xi Jinping, as paranoid and proud as he is, will not allow himself to lose face on the global stage, and that is what happened after Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Absolute Resolve. In Chinese culture, "Losing face" (diū liǎn) refers to a severe loss of reputation, honor, and social standing caused by public embarrassment. Thus, Xi Jinping directed his anger at his senior leaders in the Central Military Commission, and the purging began, as I think it did.