OPERATION EPIC FURY: A JUST AND LEGITIMATE WAR

Operation Epic Fury Press Briefing, March 19, 2026

By Benjamin D Applebaum

Background

Never Again.

Since 1979, with the invasion of the US embassy in Tehran and the initial hostage taking of 66 Americans, and down to the 52 staff held captive for 444 days, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) has been waging an asymmetric warfare against the United States, with the latter launching Operation Epic Fury in February 2026 after 47 years of passivity of the US Government (USG).

To the vociferous anti-Trumper crowd in the Western World, the United States’ military campaigns in Iran violate international law. The war is met with total indignation on social media,  mainstream media, and even in the halls of the US Congress. From the first salvo of air attacks on February 28 to this day, the relentless accusation against President Trump of ushering the country into another forever war is also echoed overseas. Leaders of the European Union and NATO, especially Spain, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, have castigated President Trump for not informing them of his plan to invade Iran, then distanced themselves later on from the United States’ military campaigns, stating that the Iran War is not their war.

The Democrat Party’s calls to end the war and its condemnation of sending the Americans’ sons and daughters to harm’s way grew louder even more when the former Director of NCTC, Joe Kent, resigned from his position, claiming that in his good conscience he could not support Operation Epic Fury because there is no imminent threat from Iran.

If the USG considered the IRI as a State-Sponsored Terrorist Regime--referring to a foreign government providing supplies, training, and other forms of support to non-state terrorist organizations--the Iranian government should then be treated with a higher degree of concern. More so, the IRGC and its proxies, like Hezbollah, are considered to be Religious Terrorists—groups that use violence to further what they see as a divinely commanded purpose and who value death more than life itself.

Following the expiration of a 10-day deadline for the Islamic Republic of Iran to comply with nuclear and security demands of the USG, President Trump ordered the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, in coordination with the Israel IDF’s Operation Roaring Lion.

The operation is a large-scale, coordinated US military and cyber campaign aimed at the systematic degradation of the IRGC’s offensive capabilities. The USG has articulated four primary military objectives for the campaign: 

•  Permanent Denuclearization: To ensure the IRGC never obtains a nuclear weapon by neutralizing remaining and reconstituted nuclear infrastructure.
•  Destruction of Missile Infrastructure: To raze the IRGC missile industry to the ground by destroying missile stockpiles, launchers, and production factories.
•  Neutralization of Naval Forces: To annihilate the IRGC Navy and other security infrastructure used to project power and threaten regional stability, especially in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Degradation of Proxy Networks: To significantly weaken IRGC’s regional "terrorist proxies," including Hezbollah,  Hamas, and the Houthis, preventing them from further destabilizing the Middle East.

I disagree with Joe Kent. Based on my assessment of the pugnacious relationship and antipathy of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United States, the Shiite regime, which calls the United States the Great Satan, poses imminent danger, not an immediate threat, to the Americans. I arrived at this conclusion using the analytical process called CHIPS (© 2016)—Capability, History, Intention, Pronouncement, and Situation. CHIPS is a strategic analytical method that I used to assess the Islamic Republic of Iran’s overall composition and the threat it poses to US national security.  

This study uses Open Sources, which are derived from periodicals, research studies, and news publications; as such, this presentation can be identified as an Open Source Intelligence (OSINT).

Capability

How strong are the IRI security forces? The IRI security infrastructure is divided into three forces: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regular Islamic Republic of Iran Army (ARTESH),  and the volunteer militia known as BASIJ. For the purposes of this study, this paper will cover only the IRGC and its Quds Force, as they have the capacity to affect and threaten the US government’s national security both domestically and abroad.

IRGC is Iran's elite military, intelligence, and economic powerhouse, with an estimated 125,000-210,000 personnel, focusing on the Ayatollah Regime’s survival, asymmetric warfare, and regional influence. It also controls Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, drone programs, and the Quds Force (QF), which manages proxy networks across the Middle East and East Asia, like Hamas (Gaza), Hezbollah (Lebanon),  Hashd al-Sha'abi (Iraq), National Defence Forces (Syria), Houthis (Yemen), Zainabiyoun Brigade (Pakistan), and Fatemiyoun Division (Afghanistan), to name some.

Before Operation Epic Fury, the IRGC possessed the Middle East's largest missile arsenal, boasting roughly 2,500 missiles, including advanced long-range ballistic and cruise missiles (e.g., Sejil, Khorramshahr-4) and over 2,000 drones. The arsenal was designed for saturation attacks on regional targets and to maintain a second-strike capability. This study focuses on the IRGC’s Force Projection Capability beyond Iran.

Missile Capabilities

• IRGC Aerospace Force: Operates Iran's largest-in-region missile inventory and UAV capabilities, featuring underground missile silos, enabling strikes across the Middle East.
• Ballistic Missiles: The arsenal included weapons with ranges up to 2,000 km, capable of hitting targets across the region. Key missile models included the Sejil (1,550-mile range), Kheibar (1,240-mile range), Ghadr, and Khorramshahr.
• Cruise Missiles: Advanced long-range anti-ship missiles were deployed to create a defensive barrier and threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
• "Missile Cities": The IRGC maintained extensive underground storage facilities for these missiles, ensuring survivability against initial strikes.
• Precision: Recent exercises highlighted improved precision in striking targets, as shown in the attacks directed at Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. 

Drone and Naval Capabilities 

• UAVs (Drones): The IRGC relied heavily on one-way attack drones (similar to Shahed series) for offense.
• Navy Assets: The IRGC Navy operated hundreds of fast-attack boats and naval drones intended to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Regional Proliferation: The IRGC was noted for providing advanced drones and missiles to regional allies like Lebanese Hizbollah.

Strategic Posture

• Second-Strike Doctrine: The arsenal was configured so that even if a first strike destroyed 50% of the IRGC weapons, over 1,000 missiles would remain to retaliate and overwhelm regional defenses.
• Production Capability: Iran's rate of producing new missiles and drones was outpacing the ability of regional defenses to create interceptors.
• Missile Response: In the initial days of the conflict, the IRGC demonstrated its capability by launching over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones.

Quds Force is also active in the Western Hemisphere, focusing on intelligence gathering, clandestine operations, and developing logistical networks. The QF operators are concentrating on Venezuela, the Tri-Border Area (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay), and on establishing anti-US influence in the region. IRGC-QF also has a presence in Mexico and Canada, as reported by the news media. There is no doubt that the existence of IRGC-QF operators at the United States’ doorsteps elevates the terrorists’ threats to homeland security.  

History

The IRI Government, through the IRGC, has engaged in a long-term, asymmetric campaign against the United States since the 1980s, primarily using proxy militias, intelligence operations, and naval harassment to avoid direct conventional war. Key actions include training insurgents in Iraq, attacks in Lebanon, and provocations in the Persian Gulf, aiming to force US military forces' withdrawal from the Middle East. 

Key Historical Conflict Points

• 1979 US Embassy Invasion and Hostage Taking:  The crisis lasted from November 4, 1979, to January 20, 1981,   during the time of President Jimmy Carter (D). Iranian militants seized the US embassy in Tehran, initially taking 66  Americans hostage, and while several hostages were released early, 52 Americans were held captive for 444 days.
• 1983 Car Bombing in Beirut: Islamic Jihad, an Iran-backed terrorist group, staged a suicide car bombing at the US Embassy in Beirut, killing 17 Americans. 
• 1983 US Barracks Bombing: The IRGC was instrumental in forming, training, and funding Hezbollah, which carried out the 1983 US Marine barracks bombing in Beirut, killing 241 US personnel.
• 1984 Kidnapping of William Buckley: Hezbollah, supported by the IRGC, kidnapped William Buckley, the CIA station chief in Beirut, Lebanon. He was held for approximately 15 months and subjected to brutal torture intended to force him to reveal CIA intelligence networks. Some intelligence reports also suggest he was moved to Tehran, Iran, where he was tortured in the basement of the Iranian foreign ministry. The interrogation has resulted in the decimation of the CIA network in Lebanon and had a big effect on the intelligence collection in the Middle East. Operation 
• 1987-1988 Tanker War: The IRGC Navy mined the Persian Gulf, resulting in Operation Praying Mantis, where the US Navy forces destroyed Iranian oil platforms and naval ships. 
• 2003–2011 Iraq War: The Quds Force supplied Shiite militants with advanced roadside bombs, leading to the deaths of over 600 US service members. 
• 2016 Capture of US Navy Sailors: The 2016 US–Iran naval incident happened on January 12, 2016, during the Obama administration. IRGC forces captured ten US Navy sailors after two riverine command boats drifted into Iranian territorial waters near Farsi Island in the Persian Gulf. 
• 2020 Assassination of Qasem Soleimani: The US killed Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad, a major escalation in the conflict. Soleimani is reported to be the mastermind of the roadside bombings in Iraq. 
• Ongoing Regional Shadow War: The IRGC continues to support proxy forces in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen that target US military bases with drones and missiles. 

The IRGC's strategy focuses on "guerrilla warfare" and "low-intensity conflict," aiming to inflict costs that make the US presence unsustainable in the Middle East, rather than winning through conventional battle. But this kind of war escalated in 2026 when the American forces launched Operation Epic Fury.

Intention

The IRGC intends to expel US military forces from the Middle East, retaliate for the killing of Qassem Soleimani, and counter US influence in the region through asymmetric warfare. Their strategy involves targeting US personnel and interests, supporting proxy militias, and employing cyber warfare against US infrastructures. 

Key aspects of the IRGC's intent and actions include:

• Asymmetric Warfare: The IRGC-QF utilizes regional proxy militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to attack US coalition forces and allies. Rough estimates indicate that the IRGC and its proxy network have been responsible for the killings of more than 1,000 Americans since 1979. This total includes US military personnel, diplomats, and civilians killed in various attacks across the Middle East and elsewhere over the past four decades. 
• Retaliation and Terror Plotting: Following the 2020 killing of Qassem Soleimani, the IRGC has vowed revenge, plotting attacks on American personnel, civilians, and former officials in the Middle East and around the world.
• Targeting US Assets: The IRGC frequently engages in harassment of US naval vessels, including high-speed boat approaches and drones.
• Cyber Attacks: The IRGC operates a robust cyber program capable of, and having engaged in, attacks on US infrastructures and intelligence gathering. IRGC hackers had successfully infiltrated Donald Trump’s 2024 Presidential Campaign email system, launched major DDoS campaigns against US financial institutions, and even destroyed Las Vegas Sands Casino’s servers in retaliation for the political comments made by the owner. Recent cyberattacks by the IRGC and affiliated groups against the United States have escalated sharply since late February 2026. The IRGC often operates through front groups or private contractors to maintain plausible deniability, and these are:
•  Handala: Focused on data destruction rather than extortion; recent attacks claim retaliation for kinetic strikes. 
•  Seedworm (MuddyWater): Active in cyber espionage and long-term network infiltration of USG and private sector targets.
•  Pioneer Kitten: Known for targeting the healthcare, satellite, and defense sectors.
• APT42: Specializes in "rapport-building" spear-phishing, often impersonating journalists or think-tank employees to harvest credentials from USG officials. 
• Exporting Revolution: A core, enduring mandate of the IRGC is to defend the Ayatollah’s regime and project power against the US and its allies overseas. IRGC and its proxy, Hezbollah, have established a strategic foothold in Venezuela with the intention of creating a long-term hub to advance Iranian interests in the Western Hemisphere and establish a presence near the United States. The US DEA  long accused the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah of using Venezuela as a base for drug trafficking and money laundering schemes in collusion with Venezuelan officials and local cartels. The proceeds from these illicit activities help fund Hezbollah's operations in the Middle East. 

The US officially designated the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in April 2019 due to its involvement in these activities.

Pronouncement

Based on reports leading up to the Operation Epic Fury, the IRGC and Iranian leadership issued several stark warnings and declarations against the United States, positioning themselves as prepared for a "full-scale hybrid war." 

Key pronouncements and actions by the IRGC and Iranian officials before the 2026 war included:

• The Morbid Chant: Since 1979, the IRI government has been chanting DEATH TO AMERICA. The chant "Marg bar Amrika" is a widely used political slogan in Iran, often chanted during parliamentary sessions.
• "Finger on the Trigger" Warning: IRGC commanders warned that their forces were "more ready than ever, finger on the trigger," as US warships headed toward the Middle East.
• Retaliation Threats: The IRGC stated that any US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities would trigger a response that would "cause deep regret.”
• Escalation Signaling: IRGC commander warned that the IRGC deterrence posture meant that a strike on its infrastructure would result in a faster and broader response than past engagements, focusing on "horizontal escalation" against US forces across the Middle East.
• Dismissal of US Objectives: As tensions peaked, the IRGC dismissed claims that U.S.-led military campaigns were achieving their goals, asserting that Iran would "determine the end of the war."
• "Great Satan" and Regional Threat: The longstanding designation of the US as the "Great Satan" was reaffirmed, with then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning that any US attack would spark a regional war.
• Accusation of "Full-Scale Hybrid War": The IRGC stated they were actively engaged in a "full-scale hybrid war" and would not be intimidated by US pressure. 

Before the 2026 war, Iran had also officially designated US military forces in the region as terrorist organizations (following a similar designation of the IRGC by the US in 2019) and accused the US of creating, rather than reducing, regional instability.

Situation

The situation that led to Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026, was a combination of stalled diplomatic negotiations, Iran's continued nuclear and missile ambitions, and immediate maritime escalation.

Military Situation

• US Military Buildup: Under Operation Epic Fury, the US conducted its largest military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War. This included the deployment of three aircraft carriers, a dozen supporting ships, fighter jets, bombers, and air defense batteries.
• Intelligence Assessments: The US and Israel concluded that Iran was within weeks of possessing a nuclear weapon. This assessment served as the primary justification for the subsequent Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion (Israel).
• Regional Escalation: Before the war, Israel had conducted near-daily airstrikes against Iranian-backed Hezbollah targets in Lebanon for nearly a year. Tensions had also been fueled by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks that killed more than a thousand Israelis and subsequent regional fighting.
• Asymmetric Posture: Iran maintained an asymmetric strategy, relying on drones, fast-attack boats, and a network of regional proxies (the "Axis of Resistance") to counter conventional US and Israeli power. 
• Western Hemisphere, Mexico, and Canada Presence:  The IRGC utilizes a "direct air bridge" to Venezuela to transport personnel, weapons, and senior intelligence members into South America. Precise numbers of IRGC-QF members are not publicly disclosed. Still, they are estimated at between 5,000 and 15,000 personnel globally, with a covert presence focused on intelligence gathering, networking with criminal organizations, and logistical support. Reports in early 2026 indicate that the Quds Force has attempted to recruit cartel-linked individuals to attack US officials and Iranian dissidents in the US mainland and Mexico. IRGC-QF operatives targeted the Israeli ambassador to Mexico in late 2024, showing an active intelligence and operational capability within the country. Based on reports in 2024 and early 2026, an estimated 700 individuals linked to the IRGC are operating or residing in Canada.
• Missile Force Projection: In March 2026, the IRGC attempted to strike the US-UK base at Diego Garcia, ~4,000 km (roughly 2,500 miles) away, using two-stage, long-range ballistic missiles (possibly modified Khorramshahr-class). While the attempt failed—with missiles either failing or being intercepted—it demonstrated a major expansion in force projection beyond their declared 2,000 km limit.

Political Situation

•  Diplomatic Failure: Last-minute "last-chance" negotiations in Geneva between the Trump administration and Iranian officials failed to produce a new deal to replace the JCPOA, which Trump had dismantled in 2018. Three rounds of high-stakes negotiations in February 2026—in Muscat, Oman, and in Geneva, Switzerland—ended in a stalemate. Iran refused to accept a "zero-enrichment" policy or to include its ballistic missile program in a new deal.
• Trump's 10-Day Ultimatum: President Donald Trump issued a 10-day ultimatum for Iran to comply with US demands regarding its nuclear program. The operation was launched following Tehran's refusal to meet these conditions. 
• Iranian Internal Pressure: The IRI government was facing severe economic pressure from sanctions and widespread domestic unrest before the war began, and the United States saw it as a window of opportunity to launch the military campaigns along with Israel.

Nuclear Situation

• Uranium Stockpile: Based on reports from March 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged that the IRGC possesses a stockpile of around 441 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, which international experts and reports note is enough to produce material for 10–11 nuclear weapons. The stated amount is approximately 441 kg of 60%-enriched uranium, which is a short technical step away from 90% weapons-grade levels.
• Quantity for 10 Bombs: IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi stated in October 2025 that Iran's stockpile of approximately 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium was enough for ten nuclear bombs if enriched further.

 Conclusion

Based on June 2025 intelligence assessments following Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 attacks on Iran’s three nuclear sites—Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, US and Israeli officials claimed massive damage to Iranian nuclear facilities. Still, other assessments and IAEA input suggested that significant capabilities survived, and while infrastructures were damaged, not all of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile was eliminated.

Remember, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed to CBS NEWS that around 440 kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium is under the rubble, and Iran has no plans to retrieve the near‑weapons‑grade material. This is the same Araghchi who, on February 26, claimed that  Iran deliberately limits its ballistic missile range to 2,000 km. However, this claim contradicts reports from March 2026, which suggest Iran demonstrated a 4,000 km range by targeting the British base on Diego Garcia, bringing European targets like London, Madrid, and Munich within reach.

On February 26, the US Intelligence Community assessed that IRI was only weeks away from enriching enough uranium to produce a low-level nuclear device. Likewise, Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, as reported by the Associated Press said, “The significantly increased production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon State to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern” and that “approximately 42 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium is theoretically enough to produce one atomic bomb, if enriched further to 90%.” One device could be used by IRGC-QF and/or Hezbollah operators in North America or the Western Hemisphere (See Situation-Western Hemisphere, Mexico, and Canada Presence).

Finding that the IRI negotiators, led by Abbas Araghchi, were not amenable to the USG's demands, the final round of nuclear negotiations involving Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff concluded on February 26, 2026, in Geneva, where they reportedly described the Iranian proposal presented on the final day as being "full of holes." Araghchi’s team walked out of the negotiation table. This validated the old report by Al Jazeera on June 4, 2025, when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei firmly stated that Iran will not abandon its uranium enrichment, rejecting US demands for a complete halt. Khamenei described calls to stop enrichment as "nonsense" and asserted it is crucial for Iran's energy independence and technological progress.

Two days after the nuclear negotiation ended, the US Intelligence Community and Israel's Mossad received information that the senior leadership of the then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would meet in one building in Tehran at the same time, which led to President Trump approving the launch of Operation Epic Fury, as both USG and Israel saw the “window of opportunity” in front of them, which might not happen again in the future.

Considering the IRGC’s capability to produce ballistic missiles at a range of 4000 kilometers, its history of asymmetric warfare with the United States since 1980s, its intention of targeting US national security interests here and abroad with proxies or otherwise, its pronouncements of killing the infidels and Death to America, and the current situation where the IRGC is reportedly weeks away from producing an atomic bomb, it is unthinkable for Joe Kent to say that Iran does not pose imminent threat to the United States.

 When it comes to nuclear issues and threats, especially from a country labeled a State-Sponsored Terrorist Regime, the USG generally considers “all bets on the table” to mean, in national security terms, that all military options, peace negotiations, diplomatic proposals, or political risks are under consideration, or in play. It indicates a situation in which everything is exposed, and no option is off-limits. This reminded me of my Hostage Rescue Operations class when a student raised this scenario: A terrorist group has kidnapped the President of the United States, and if their demands are not met, they would kill the President and detonate a portable nuclear bomb on the mainland. What would be the USG’s response? Our CIA instructor replied in one sentence: Find the portable nuclear bomb at all costs and let the President die, if he cannot be rescued alive. You got my point.

The United States is dealing with a regime that also has a nihilistic culture, akin to a religious terrorist that uses violence to further what they see as a divinely commanded purpose. The suicidal mindset of the religious terrorists deepens the degree of concern about their existence because of their religious adherence to jihad (holy war). Their willingness to die for their cause makes them dangerous, as exemplified by the suicidal operations of al-Qaeda members on 9/11.

If a regime could kill 35,000 plus of its people in January 2026 for protesting, execute more than 2000 in 2025 for religious violations, and send 36,000 schoolchildren to their deaths as "human-wave" attacks, including clearing minefields, as part of IRGC tactics during the Iran-Iraq War, would the IRGC-QF hesitate to kill millions of American infidels using a nuclear bomb? Or strike the “Zionist Regime” or hit Madrid, Paris, London?  

Going back to Joe Kent’s assertion that the Islamic Republic of Iran posed no imminent threat to the United States, I would say that his assessment was more of a personal protest than an official pronouncement, as he was compartmentalized from intelligence briefings weeks leading up to Operation Epic Fury due to leaking intelligence reports, and that created stigma.

But, granting that Joe Kent did not know the imminent threat, as he was the man on the outside looking in,  I would present that before 9/11, the US Intelligence Community had no intelligence about the 19 Saudi Arabian nationals planning to crash four airplanes into the Twin Towers, the Pentagon building, and possibly the White House, where the plane landed in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. On that fateful morning, the world stood still, and the Americans said: Never Again. Since then, the USG, in terms of national security matters, follows the Bush Doctrine: It asserted the United States’ right to launch preemptive or preventive war to dismantle terrorist threats abroad before they could reach the US mainland. It establishes the right of the United States to use military force against perceived threats before they materialize into an attack. It shifted foreign policy toward unilateral action and regime change, seeking to destroy threats where they lived, before the enemies could decimate millions of Americans in the homeland using a nuclear device, thus the Operation Epic Fury.

 Never Again.